mercredi 28 février 2007

U.S. Sanctions With Teeth

By David Ignatius
Wednesday, February 28, 2007; Page A19
Everybody knows that economic sanctions don't work. Just look at the decades of fruitless pressure on Cuba. But guess what? In the recent cases of North Korea and Iran, a new variety of U.S. Treasury sanctions is having a potent effect, suggesting that the conventional wisdom may be wrong.
These new, targeted financial measures are to traditional sanctions what Super Glue is to Elmer's Glue-All. That is, they really stick. Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt doesn't even like to call them sanctions, preferring the term "law enforcement measures." Explains Stuart Levey, Treasury's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence: "Sanctions are scoffed at. They have a bad history."


Authority for the new sanctions, as with so many other policy weapons, comes from the USA Patriot Act, which in Section 311 authorizes Treasury to designate foreign financial institutions that are of "primary money laundering concern." Once a foreign bank is so designated, it is effectively cut off from the U.S. financial system. It can't clear dollars; it can't have transactions with U.S. financial institutions; it can't have correspondent relationships with American banks.
The new measures work thanks to the hidden power of globalization: Because all the circuits of the global financial system are inter-wired, the U.S. quarantine effectively extends to all major banks around the world. As Levey observed in a recent speech, the impact of this little-noticed provision of the Patriot Act "has been more powerful than many thought possible."
Treasury applied the new tools to North Korea in September 2005, when it put a bank in Macao called Banco Delta Asia on the blacklist. There was no legal proceeding -- just a notice in the Federal Register summarizing the evidence: Banco Delta Asia had been providing illicit financial services to North Korean government agencies and front companies for more than 20 years, according to the Treasury notice. The little Macao bank had helped the North Koreans feed counterfeit $100 bills into circulation, had laundered money from drug deals and had financed cigarette smuggling. North Korea "pays a fee to Banco Delta Asia for financial access to the banking system with little oversight or control," Treasury alleged.
Wham! The international payments window shut almost instantly on Pyongyang's pet bank. Transactions with U.S. entities stopped, but the Treasury announcement also put other countries on notice to beware of Banco Delta Asia. The Macao banking authorities, realizing that they needed the oxygen of the international financial system to survive, took regulatory action on their own and froze the bank's roughly $24 million in North Korean assets. And around Asia, banks began looking for possible links to North Korean front companies -- and shutting them down.
A similar financial squeeze is being applied to Iran. Here again, the impact has come from the way private financial institutions have reacted to public pressure from Treasury. "As banks do their risk-reward analysis, they must now take into account the very serious risk of doing business in Iran, and what the risks would be if they were found to be part of a terrorist or proliferation transaction," says Kimmitt.
Treasury began squeezing Iran last September, when it accused Bank Saderat, one of the largest government-owned banks, of financing terrorism by funneling $50 million to Hezbollah and Hamas since 2001. The Treasury order cut the bank off from any access to the U.S financial system, direct or indirect. A similar ban was imposed in January on Bank Sepah, which Treasury alleged was a key intermediary for Iran's Aerospace Industries Organization, the agency that oversees the country's ballistic missile program.
Meanwhile, top Treasury officials began visiting with bankers and finance ministers around the world, warning them to be careful about their dealings with Iranian companies that might covertly be supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation. This whispering campaign was enough to convince most big foreign banks in Europe and Japan to back away from Iran.
The new sanctions are toxic because they effectively limit a country's access to the global ATM. In that sense, they impose -- at last -- a real price on countries such as North Korea and Iran that have blithely defied U.N. resolutions on proliferation. "What's the goal?" asks Levey. "To create an internal debate about whether these policies [of defiance] make sense. And that's happening in Iran. People with business sense realize that this conduct makes it hard to continue normal business relationships."
The writer co-hosts, with Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria, PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues athttp://blog.washingtonpost.com/postglobal. His

mardi 20 février 2007

US 'Iran attack plans' revealed

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6376639.stm


US contingency plans for air strikes on Iran extend beyond nuclear sites and include most of the country's military infrastructure, the BBC has learned.
It is understood that any such attack - if ordered - would target Iranian air bases, naval bases, missile facilities and command-and-control centres.
The US insists it is not planning to attack, and is trying to persuade Tehran to stop uranium enrichment.
The UN has urged Iran to stop the programme or face economic sanctions.
But diplomatic sources have told the BBC that as a fallback plan, senior officials at Central Command in Florida have already selected their target sets inside Iran.
That list includes Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. Facilities at Isfahan, Arak and Bushehr are also on the target list, the sources say.
Two triggers
BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says the trigger for such an attack reportedly includes any confirmation that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon - which it denies.
Alternatively, our correspondent adds, a high-casualty attack on US forces in neighbouring Iraq could also trigger a bombing campaign if it were traced directly back to Tehran.
Long range B2 stealth bombers would drop so-called "bunker-busting" bombs in an effort to penetrate the Natanz site, which is buried some 25m (27 yards) underground.
The BBC's Tehran correspondent Frances Harrison says the news that there are now two possible triggers for an attack is a concern to Iranians.
Authorities insist there is no cause for alarm but ordinary people are now becoming a little worried, she says.
Deadline
Earlier this month US officers in Iraq said they had evidence Iran was providing weapons to Iraqi Shia militias. However the most senior US military officer later cast doubt on this, saying that they only had proof that weapons "made in Iran" were being used in Iraq.
Gen Peter Pace, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said he did not know that the Iranian government "clearly knows or is complicit" in this.
At the time, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the accusations were "excuses to prolong the stay" of US forces in Iraq.
Middle East analysts have recently voiced their fears of catastrophic consequences for any such US attack on Iran.
Britain's previous ambassador to Tehran, Sir Richard Dalton, told the BBC it would backfire badly by probably encouraging the Iranian government to develop a nuclear weapon in the long term.
Last year Iran resumed uranium enrichment - a process that can make fuel for power stations or, if greatly enriched, material for a nuclear bomb.
Tehran insists its programme is for civil use only, but Western countries suspect Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons.
The UN Security Council has called on Iran to suspend its enrichment of uranium by 21 February.
If it does not, and if the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms this, the resolution says that further economic sanctions will be considered.

lundi 12 février 2007

Lebanon hit by black market weapons boom

by Joelle Bassoul Sat Feb 10, 4:39 PM ET
BEIRUT (AFP) - The price of a Kalashnikov assault rifle has soared in Lebanon, riding the wave of political crisis, community tension and fears of a new civil war.

It used to be 100 dollars (76 euros). Now it's more than 700 dollars.
"It's a stampede," an arms dealer who did not wish to be named told AFP.
"Those who have guns are keeping them or not selling except for a huge profit, and those who don't have them are buying so they can face any eventuality."
He said a cartridge clip that used to go for two dollars now costs 20 dollars, and "a Kalashnikov has gone from a hundred dollars to 700 or 750 dollars."
After the country's 1975-1990 civil war, militias handed in their weapons, all of them except the Shiite group Hezbollah, whose guerrillas were fighting Israeli occupation in south Lebanon.
The
United Nations as well as Lebanese officials -- have demanded that Hezbollah disarm, but it has not done so.
After the current political crisis sparked deadly Beirut street clashes last month between opposition supporters and those backing the government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, "everyone is looking for guns," said a businessman close to the arms trade.
Requesting anonymity, he added that
Hezbollah, which heads the opposition movement, is not selling weapons on the local market.
The source of guns now available is twofold, the businessman said. Either they have been passed from hand to hand down the years or they were smuggled into the country, generally from
Last December, police in the north seized weapons in a raid on offices of a pro-Syrian party, which said they were left over from the 1980s "from the time of the resistance" against
Israel. But guns that have hit the market recently are brought by road from Iraq via Syria, often hidden in containers, lorries, "and even concealed inside car doors," the businessman said.
"To ensure they are not found by Syrian customs officers, only small quantities are smuggled at any one time," he added.
On February 4, Syrian officials said they had impounded an Iraqi truck transporting guns to Lebanon, and on Thursday a lorry loaded with weapons destined for Hezbollah was intercepted by security forces in east Beirut.
A UN report late last year on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 34-day summer war between Israel and Hezbollah, spoke of "information concerning arms movements on the Syrian-Lebanese border."
For the arms dealer, who uses intermediaries to buy guns from Iraq, the former Yugoslavia remains an elusive El Dorado.
"If only I could break into the market over there," he said. "I'd bring over all the Kalashnikovs and sell them in the blink of an eye."
A client's motives for buying a gun are unimportant. In Lebanon, when it comes to doing business, politics plays no part -- both smugglers and dealers have links with all parties, the businessman said.
Kalshnikovs and US-made M-16s are most highly sought after, as are handguns. "But not heavy weapons," said the businessman. "It's more difficult to bring in a cannon or rocket launcher, and demand is low."
The black market price of a rocket launcher has not risen -- it is still 300 dollars.
Patrick Haenni, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the absence of demand for heavy weapons is telling.
"It's true that there is a general tension that is leading people to arm themselves, but I don't think this indicates imminent hostilities," he said.
Haenni believes the current trend to buy guns may give rise to "localized blunders," as happened in late January when seven people were killed and more than 300 wounded in the Beirut street fighting.
"But for civil war to break out again requires a political decision, and for the moment there has not been one," he said.

vendredi 9 février 2007

Hezbollah demands back seized munitions

BEIRUT (Reuters) -
Hezbollah demanded the return of a truck carrying munitions seized by Lebanese authorities on Thursday and said the supplies were heading to its fighters in south Lebanon.Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said earlier on Thursday customs authorities had stopped a truck carrying weapons on the outskirts of Beirut and had taken it to the city's port for investigation.Hezbollah said the authorities had confiscated a "truck carrying munitions to the resistance." The truck had been carrying the load from the Bekaa Valley in the east to the south, it said in a statement."The government program clearly confirms the right of the resistance ... to work to liberate the rest of the occupied land, the prisoners and to confront the Zionist threats," the statement said, demanding the return of the truck and munitions.Israel and Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, fought a war in July and August following the Lebanese group's capture of two Israeli soldiers on July 12.The war was halted by a U.N. Security Council resolution which authorized the deployment of thousands of U.N. troops to monitor the truce. The Lebanese army also deployed to the south under the resolution.The Lebanese government is supposed to halt the flow of weapons to Hezbollah from abroad under the resolution. A U.N. envoy and anti-Syrian Lebanese leaders have accused Syria of smuggling weapons to its allies in Lebanon in recent months.Hezbollah is part of an opposition at odds with the government. The Shi'ite Muslim group says the cabinet does the bidding of the United States and, together with its allies, is demanding veto power in government. The political standoff spilled over into armed clashes last month and nine people were killed. It was Lebanon's worst civil unrest since its 1975-1990 civil war and raised fears of a new conflict. Leaders on both sides called for calm.Hezbollah has sworn it will never use its weapons against other Lebanese. It says it needs the arms partly because of Israel's continued occupation of Shebaa Farms -- territory occupied since the 1967 Middle East war.The Shebaa Farms are claimed by Lebanon, while the United Nations says they belong to Syria. Damascus says the land belongs to Lebanon.Israeli and Lebanese soldiers exchanged fire on Wednesday after Lebanese troops shot in the air as an Israeli patrol crossed a security fence near the border to search for explosives planted by Hezbollah guerrillas. No one was hurt.

UNIFIL confirms Israel's version: IDF troops didn't enter Lebanon

By Amos Harel, Avi Issacharoff and Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondents, Haaretz Service and Agencies

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) accepted on Thursday Israel's version of the events that concluded in an exchange of fire between the Israel Defense Forces and the Lebanese Army at the border late Wednesday.UNIFIL patrolled the area around Israel's and Lebanon's shared border, photographed the site, and concluded that IDF troops operated entirely within Israeli territory.The Lebanese Army on Wednesday fired warning shots at IDF troops, claiming that the troops had entered Lebanese territory.
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The incident occurred north of the border fence that Israel erected several dozen meters within Israeli territory, but south of the actual international border between the two countries. UNIFIL has not yet completed the official report on the incident, however, a UNIFIL representative briefed the UN Security Council on Thursday, and confirmed Israel's version of the events.Following the discussion on the matter, the UN Security Council called for the renewal of coordination meetings between the IDF, the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL that had been customary immediately following the Israel-Hezbollah war this summer. Lebanon was not interested in the renewal of such meetings. The Security Council convened at the behest of France. The French ambassdor to the United Nations said Thursday that Paris wants the Council to discuss and react to the Wednesday night border clash."We think that the council should have an exchange of views on this issue, which is an important one," France's UN Ambassador Jean-Marc de la Sabliere told reporters. "I am just going to ask for a briefing from the secretariat."On Wednesday night, an IDF tank fired two rounds at Lebanese Army positions opposite Moshav Avivim, after Lebanese troops fired on IDF soldiers searching for Hezbollah mines beyond the border fence but inside Israeli territory. The IDF suffered no casualties, while UNIFIL reported that five Lebanese soldiers were wounded in the incident. The Lebanese Army has denied it sustained any casualties.Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on Thursday denounced what he called Israel's violation of the Lebanese border, saying IDF troops crossed the internationally-recognized border line prior to the exchange of fire between the two countries' forces. The incident was the first of its kind since the aftermath of last summer's war between Hezbollah and Israel.Siniora discussed the border clash with UN envoy Geir Pedersen, telling him that his government condemned what he described as the new Israeli aggression on Lebanon's sovereignty and what he called the violation of the Blue Line, the UN-recognized border between the two countries.Liam McDowell, a spokesman for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), said the exchange was initiated by the Lebanese army and that the IDF bulldozer had crossed the border fence, but not the Blue Line, to clear mines.The border fence lies several dozen meters south of the Blue Line.Speaking to Pedersen in front of reporters, Siniora said the incursion compounded the daily violations of Lebanese sovereignty by Israeli aircraft.On Thursday morning, Israel Air Force planes flew twice over southern Lebanon.The IDF confirmed the overflights, saying that, "The incident yesterday hasn't led us to change our aerial activity."Defense Minister Amir Peretz stressed Thursday that Israel is not seeking an escalation along the border, but that the IDF would return fire when fired upon.Peretz's comments came after a special security consulatations on the situation in the north.Meeting with IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz and senior military officials, Peretz said that the "Northern Command operated according to regulations and in the necessary and correct manner, in keeping with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.""We have no intentions of escalation, but wherever there is fire endangering IDF forces we will have to react," he said. "UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese Army are fulfilling their roles, and we intend to continue to operate within the political and regulatory framework established in recent months."Peretz added that "there is no intention of returning to the policy of looking the other way on Lebanon."Earlier this week, four explosive devices were discovered in the area. IDF sappers detonated them from a distance. The IDF carried out yesterday's operation after informing UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army of its intentions. In response, the Lebanese Army warned the IDF that if its forces violated Lebanese sovereignty, it would open fire. The IDF said that it did not intend to cross into Lebanese territory, but if its forces were attacked, it would respond. Israel rejected Lebanese claims that it had violated Lebanese sovereignty, saying that the force was south of the international border - inside Israel - as delineated by the United Nations following the IDF pullout from southern Lebanon in May 2000. In some places, the border and the fence are several dozen meters apart.Lebanese officials said an IDF bulldozer crossed the international border and entered about 18 meters into Lebanon.A spokesman for UNIFIL, however, confirmed the exchange was initiated by the Lebanese Army after an IDF bulldozer crossed the border fence "in an apparent attempt to clear mines between the Blue Line (international border) and the fence.""We characterise this as a serious incident between the Lebanese Army and the IDF," the spokesman said.The IDF operation in the area caused grave concern on the Lebanese side, and drew the attention of the Lebanese Army. Israel imposed a local media blackout, which was lifted as soon as Hezbollah's Al-Manar went on the air with information about the operation. Al-Manar gave the operation a great deal of coverage, reporting that an Israeli armored column tried to cross into Lebanon close to Maroun al-Ras, which is across from Avivim. The report stated that UNIFIL and a Lebanese Army officer held discussions with Israel, after which Israel agreed to cancel the mission. The Lebanese News Agency reported that the Lebanese Army placed forces deployed near Maroun al-Ras on alert, fearing that the IDF planned to broaden its operation. It was also reported that IDF helicopters flew over southern Lebanon villages. The IDF Northern Command was unable to confirm whether the explosive devices had been placed recently. Hezbollah, for its part, denied Tuesday that these were new bombs, saying they had been placed before the war in July. A GOC Northern Command officer said yesterday that Hezbollah is still operating in southern Lebanon, but is keeping a low profile - its operatives avoid public displays of weapons, and wear civilian clothes. Northern Command sources report that Hezbollah is working hard to replenish its ranks, sending conscripts for training in the Beka'a, in order to make up for its losses during the war. The officer said there has been a growing presence of Islamic Jihad militants in southern Lebanon, as well as extremists affiliated with Al-Qaida and Sunni groups. These groups are seeking to challenge Hezbollah's hegemony in the area. The IDF officer said the army intends to clear all salients between the border and the fence of explosives. "Our way of thinking has changed," the officer said. "Before the war, the approach was that confrontation was bad for us, and therefore we kept away from the fence. Now the approach is that we will operate up to the Blue Line [the international border] and if the other side seeks a confrontation, it will get it," the officer said. This is not the first time the IDF has operated north of the border fence. Following the army's withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000, the fence was redrawn. At several points its path was routed south of the border, as far as 100 meters in, in what the army cited as strategic considerations.In searches conducted in recent months along the fence, IDF troops have discovered Hezbollah positions and equipment which appear to have been used in the abduction of two IDF soldiers in July 2006.About two weeks ago, IDF troops destroyed two Hezbollah bunkers uncovered during searches of the area around the border fence. One of the bunkers was found during the war, and the other was uncovered last month. Both bunkers were within Israel's territory, somewhere between the international border and the border fence. The bunkers housed supplies, food and tools that would enable a long stay underground.'Syria rearming Hezbollah'Defense Minister Amir Peretz on Wednesday accused Syria of allowing the rearmament of Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon and said Israel has the right to act forcefully against the Shiite militia to counter the threat.Speaking to visiting U.S. Jewish leaders, Peretz said Syria, Hezbollah's main ally, is continuing to allow weapons shipments to the group to cross its border with Lebanon."We can't under any circumstances ignore the transfer of weapons and ammunition to Hezbollah," Peretz said. "While Israel remains committed to the cease-fire we reserve the right to protect the citizens of the State of Israel and we will do this forcefully without any compromises."In Beirut, a Hezbollah official declined comment.About two weeks ago, IDF troops destroyed two Hezbollah bunkers uncovered during searches of the area around the border fence. One of the bunkers was found during the war, and the other was uncovered last month. Both bunkers were within Israel's territory, somewhere between the international border and the border fence. The bunkers housed supplies, food and tools that would enable a long stay underground.